The peak of daily COVID-19 deaths occurring in hospitals in England was likely passed on 8 April according to new analysis posted on MedRxiv
Professor David Leon at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine has led a research team that analysed data published daily by the NHS on patients who had died in hospital and had tested positive for COVID-19.
This news comes after the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Boris Johnson, has made his return to work today after recovering from the coronavirus, he spoke at a press conference that he held early this morning.
This paper was the result of a collaboration between the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, UCL London and the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research in Rostock, Germany.
They suggest the current figures for the numbers of deaths reported to the NHS on the previous day is misleading, as for when the real trend in deaths had occurred.
This is due to the numbers announced each day including those deaths that occurred over an extended period of days in the past, or were ‘missed’ over previous days, rather than just those death within a 24-hour period.
The research shows that there has been overestimates reported as the daily numbers of deaths occurring in the country.
The maximum number of COVID-19 daily hospital deaths on the 8th of April, but the maximum number of daily deaths that was reported was 866 on the 10th April.
Professor David Leon said:
“It is inevitable that there are delays in reporting COVID-19 deaths in hospital. During this crisis, staff at all levels will be stretched to the limit. However, government officials and scientific advisers would be advised to focus on more meaningful trends that are much less subject to big fluctuations driven by the ups and downs of the reporting systems.”
Leon continued:
“The fact a peak may have been reached on April 8 is not an argument for relaxing social contact. In fact, the opposite.”
“Communicating clearly to the public that there has been a peak in mortality at the end of the first week of April might motivate people to persevere with the lockdown as they will then appreciate the sacrifices being made in lockdowns are paying off.”
However, deaths due to COVID-19, of those people who are under 60 years in age, appear to have peaked only on the 11th of April.
The graph below shows the rise in mortality in England and Wales each day since the outbreak began, not just in hospitals, until April the 9th. The additional data is provided by the Office for National Statistics in its weekly reports.
The peak of deaths in England and Wales shown from using this method of counting, occurred on the 7th of April, when the number of deaths recorded was 1,001, compared to 944 on April the 6th were 879 on April the 8th.
