It has been confirmed that two of the oil tankers damaged belonged to Saudi Arabia and one of the other two ships was Norwegian-registered.
The Strait of Hormuz is the most critical waterway for global crude oil trade, an estimated 17 million barrels of crude oil pass through the Strait daily.
Even slight disruption to these shipments is enough to send oil prices soaring, today’s news about the four tankers was enough to cause a 2% rise in oil prices.
Tensions between Iran & US are at an all-time high, and just Last month, Iran threatened to “close” the Strait if it was prevented from using it following a US decision to end exemptions from sanctions for major Iranian oil companies.
So, to decide who is to blame we first need to look at who’s “agenda” stands to benefit from the incident.
Could this be a warning from the Iranians to show how easy it would be for them to disrupt shipping in the area or could this be a way to cast blame on the Iranians, so Trump can justify to the American people why they should go to war with Iran?
President trump could easily use an incident like this to trigger national outrage to gain support for a war with the Iranians.
The threat also followed the US deployment of an aircraft carrier and a bomber task force to the Middle East after national security adviser John Bolton said the US had received “clear indications” that Iran was preparing to attack American forces in the region.
The Iranians could also be trying to send a message to the US to back off and stop sanctions on Iran if the Iranians were to close off or disrupt shipping in the area oil prices could soar as much as 50% in a matter of days, which brings us to our next point.
Who else could benefit from a disruption to shipping in the area?
Since tensions with Russia are also at an all-time high, the Russians have been feeling the pinch as the US & Europe decrease their reliance on Russian oil.
If the Strait were to be closed Western countries would be forced to turn to Russia to fill the gap, Russia has also proved that it isn’t afraid to operate covert operations in other countries.
On the 4th of May, 2018 former double agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia were poisoned by Russian GRU agents with Novichok that was also found to be linked to Russia.
We would like to know your thoughts on who you think could be responsible for the recent attacks; please use the comments below to discuss.